Mesoscale Discussion 1726
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

   Areas affected...Western/Northern/Central NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071728Z - 071930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of
   New York over the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity has recently
   increased across western NY, just ahead of an approaching shortwave
   trough and attendant cold front. Most coherent band currently
   stretches from St. Lawrence County southwestward across Lake Ontario
   in Orleans County. Eastward motion of this band is estimated at
   40-45 kt, bringing it into central NY around 19Z. Downstream cloud
   cover has limited heating and destabilization downstream, but the
   strong forcing for ascent and cold temperatures aloft should still
   contribute to a persistence of these storms. Strong unidirectional
   westerly flow aloft is already in place, and a few storms may be
   strong enough to produce damaging winds at the surface. Even so, 
   updrafts are generally expected to remain shallow, resulting in a
   relatively low coverage of winds exceeding 50 kt. Primary mechanism
   for storm strengthening appears to be mergers between the main
   convective band and slower moving storms ahead of it. Overall,
   limited storm severity and coverage are expected to preclude the
   need for a watch.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 10/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43187856 43657687 44197555 44567462 44207364 43707368
               43077420 42567517 42447693 42747848 43187856