Mesoscale Discussion 1727
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0420 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 072120Z - 072245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging winds of 60-70 mph are expected through about 23z
   when a cold frontal squall line moves offshore.

   DISCUSSION...A line of low-topped thunderstorms, along or just ahead
   of a surface cold front, will continue to move east-southeastward at
   50-55 kt and will move offshore around 23z.  The convection will be
   maintained by focused ascent on the gust front of the low-topped
   bowing segment, with ascent augmented within the left-exit region of
   a strong mid-upper jet streak.   Though buoyancy is relatively
   limited (SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg) and the convection is no deeper than
   20-25 kft, steep low-level lapse rates will allow rather efficient
   downward transport of 60-70 kt winds observed to within 1 km of the
   ground.  Given the recent history of observed severe wind gusts and
   phasing with the latter stages of the diurnal heating cycle,
   additional severe thunderstorm gusts of 60-70 mph appear likely in
   the next 1-2 hours, especially with the bowing segment moving toward
   Boston.

   ..Thompson.. 10/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...

   LAT...LON   41756988 41217001 41247221 41707264 42397195 43087151
               43267120 43247061 42747039 41756988