Mesoscale Discussion 1728
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Louisiana through extreme southern
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092050Z - 092215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some risk for a brief tornado or two will exist near the
   Louisiana-Mississippi border next couple hours. Threat appears
   marginal, and a WW will probably not be needed in the short term.
   However, threat may still undergo some increase during the evening.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2045Z, the center of hurricane Delta is located
   just off the southwest Louisiana coast and is moving north northeast
   at 12 kt. The hurricane is expected to make landfall early this
   evening. See latest advisories from NHC for more information on
   Delta. Outer rain band convective development has overall been
   rather anemic east and northeast of the center. However, during the
   last hour or so some brief intensification in shallow convection has
   occurred near the LA-MS border where a warm front is situated, but
   recent trends have been for this activity to weaken. Instability
   remains very limited with little in the way of lightning activity
   due to very warm temperatures aloft. Moreover, the system is
   entraining mid-level dry air which will further serve to limit
   buoyancy. Low-level hodographs from Slidell VWP have shown some
   increase size and the low-level kinematic environment will gradually
   become more favorable for supercells as Delta continues northeast
   this evening. In the meantime, best threat for a brief tornado or
   two will exist as the shallow convection moving northwestward near
   the MS/LA border interacts with the warm front, but overall threat
   will probably remain marginal during the next couple hours.

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 10/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31149111 31458929 31048913 30818944 30759007 30529148
               31149111