Mesoscale Discussion 1729
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

   Areas affected...parts of southeastern Mississippi...southwestern
   Alabama...and western portions of the Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 100723Z - 100930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential for brief tornadoes may increase over the next
   few hours, within north-south convective bands east of the center of
   tropical cyclone Delta.  A tornado watch may become necessary.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data shows the center of gradually
   weakening tropical system Delta over east-central Louisiana, moving
   slowly north-northeastward with time.  East of the center, two
   primary bands of convection are evident -- one extending northward
   across southeastern Mississippi, and the other extending
   north-northwestward across western portions of the Florida Panhandle
   into southwestern Alabama.  

   Inland convection within these two bands remains weak/disorganized,
   with no lightning observed with convection within either of these
   two bands.  However, hints of slightly better organization have been
   observed within a few of the offshore cells, along with some very
   weak low-level rotation.

   A zone of low-level confluence is indicated in the vicinity of these
   convective bands, and resulting ascent suggests a continuation of
   this convection -- which may consolidate with time into a single,
   more pronounced band per recent CAM guidance.  Given the tropical
   boundary layer streaming northward/inland (dewpoints in the upper
   70s) possibly permitting some minimal degree of increase in CAPE, a
   corresponding, small increase in updraft strength/organization may
   occur within a few stronger cells.  Given the observed
   veering/increasing flow with height yielding 0-1km shear supportive
   of updraft rotation, potential for brief tornadoes may increase with
   time, possibly warranting tornado watch consideration.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 10/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29398878 29898903 30668909 31548952 32158950 32868866
               32648760 32248706 30888648 29658616 29138827 29398878