Mesoscale Discussion 1731
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1113 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101613Z - 101815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for brief tornadoes associated with Tropical
   Depression Delta is expected to increase by early afternoon. Tornado
   watch issuance is possible by 17-18Z.

   DISCUSSION...At 16Z, T.D. Delta is centered over northwest MS, with
   a substantial midlevel dry slot (noted on WV imagery) wrapping into
   the southern and eastern portions of the cyclone. The primary
   convective band has pushed into central AL and the western FL
   Panhandle. Little to no lightning has been observed with this band
   throughout the morning, and the generally linear convective mode has
   thus far limited the threat for brief tornadoes. However, modest
   heating near and south of a northward-moving warm front should
   result in gradual destabilization across eastern AL/western GA into
   the FL Panhandle over the next several hours. As a result, ongoing
   convection may gradually intensify as it spreads eastward, with
   additional more cellular development possible ahead of the primary
   band by afternoon.

   While wind fields will gradually weaken as T.D. Delta continues to
   decay this afternoon, effective shear of 35-45 kt should support
   some organized structures with any more robust convection this
   afternoon. Low-level shear/SRH will support a brief tornado threat,
   especially with any semi-discrete convection that can be sustained
   in closer proximity to the warm front. Some damaging wind gusts will
   also be possible with any of the linear elements within the broader
   convective band. Tornado watch issuance is possible by 17-18Z.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 10/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31128614 31398620 32368632 33298628 33738599 33998492
               33938422 33648396 33198382 32428429 31398485 30858531
               30738612 31128614