Mesoscale Discussion 1732
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

   Areas affected...Northern New York and Vermont

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101748Z - 101915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase through the
   afternoon with primarily a damaging wind threat. A severe
   thunderstorm watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop along and ahead of a
   cold front in eastern Ontario. These storms are expected to increase
   in coverage an intensity over the next 1 to 2 hours. Instability is
   not that strong at this time as surface temperatures are only near
   70 degrees with dewpoints in the mid 50s. However, moisture
   advection from the southwest, cooling temperatures aloft, and
   additional heating ahead of these storms should lead to continued
   destabilization through the afternoon. As MLCAPE increases to around
   1000 J/kg, expect storm intensity to also increase. A very strong
   wind field (>50 kts less than 1km above the surface per RAP
   soundings) will support a damaging wind threat with any storms which
   develop. This will be especially likely with any linear/bowing
   segments. Expect this storm activity to be strongly diurnally driven
   with the threat decreasing considerably by mid/late evening.

   ..Bentley/Thompson.. 10/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   44517599 44937520 45057464 45037312 45057256 45027193
               44267205 43597241 43507342 43467433 43467530 43547625
               43817635 44087635 44517599