Mesoscale Discussion 1735
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0544 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern New York...Vermont...and New Hampshire

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...

   Valid 102244Z - 110045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Although a gradual weakening trend is expected, the threat
   for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps an instance of severe hail,
   will continue into the evening hours with any robust convection
   within WW 499.

   DISCUSSION...IR satellite and lightning trends over the past hour
   have shown a gradual decrease in convective intensity as storms move
   into a more capped air mass across NH/ME and southeast NY. Despite
   these trends, a few wind reports have been noted within the past
   hour and strong flow remains in place over the region (50-60 knot
   winds within the lowest 2-3 km layer observed by the KCXX VWP).
   Recent RAP Mesoanalysis estimates show sufficient MLCAPE values
   (around 500 J/kg) remain over NY and VT with strong 45-55 knots of
   deep layer shear despite prior convection. Although a weakening
   trend will likely continue through the evening due to nocturnal
   cooling, the strong flow and sufficient instability may allow any
   stronger convective cells that manage to develop (either along the
   trough axis or along the approaching cold front) to pose the risk of
   damaging winds and perhaps severe hail.

   ..Moore/Dial.. 10/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43507590 44427509 44887404 44967277 44977187 44827102
               44597071 44157089 43877130 43447216 43227324 43047387
               43027458 43027506 43097552 43227583 43507590