Mesoscale Discussion 1737
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0738 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

   Areas affected...Vermont...New Hampshire...and western Maine

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...

   Valid 110038Z - 110145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Although strong storms will continue to pose a risk for
   damaging wind in the near term for the eastern portion of WW 499 and
   western ME, a gradual weakening trend remains likely after 01 UTC.
   The severe threat continues to diminish for the western portion of
   WW 499.

   DISCUSSION...Radar, satellite, and lightning trends have all shown
   an uptick in convective intensity across central NH and far western
   ME over the past hour. This is likely due to strong deep layer shear
   over the region that is able to compensate for relatively minimal
   instability. These storms have shown signs of linear organization,
   which may allow them to persist for another 30-60 minutes before
   weakening in the cooler, more capped environment to the east. Other
   nearby convection will likely see a similar weakening trend with
   eastward extent, and no downstream watch is anticipated at this
   time.

   To the west, weak and shallow convection has largely failed to
   mature along the southward surging cold front. Nocturnal cooling and
   increasing inhibition/boundary layer decoupling will further limit
   convective potential and the risk for damaging wind. As such, WW 499
   will be allowed to expire at 01 UTC.

   ..Moore/Dial.. 10/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...

   LAT...LON   44317310 44487221 44597058 44497012 44156974 43766989
               43667042 43687106 43747204 43907308 44317310