Mesoscale Discussion 1738
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0626 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

   Areas affected...portions of the central and northern South Carolina
   vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111126Z - 111300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some potential for a brief tornado and/or damaging wind
   gust exists across portions of central and northern South Carolina.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a convective cluster which has
   gradually intensified over the past 1 to 2 hours, including a
   few/sporadic bursts of lightning.  This cluster appears to be
   occurring in conjunction with a weak mesoscale low along a
   west-northwest to east-southeast warm front lying just north of the
   Georgia/South Carolina border.  

   The overall environment across the region appears marginal for
   tornado potential; CAPE remains limited due to poor lapse rates, and
   storms just to the cool side of the warm front are likely to be
   slightly elevated.  Kinematically, while some low-level veering is
   evident, particularly north of the warm front where surface winds
   are easterly, strength of flow through the lowest 2km is relatively
   weak -- in the 10 to 20 kt range per recent GSP WSR-88D VWP
   observations.  Still, given the uptick in convective intensity, and
   convection in the vicinity of the mesolow/warm front indicating
   transient/weak and relatively broad circulations at times, a brief
   tornado cannot be ruled out.  A locally stronger wind gust could
   also occur, as a more linear storm configuration evolves.  

   We will continue to monitor evolution of convection/convective mode,
   but until some degree of diurnal destabilization could occur, we do
   not currently anticipate any favorable changes in the environment
   that would otherwise warrant greater tornado/wind potential.  As
   such, WW issuance is currently not expected.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 10/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34048181 34488197 34958188 35198131 35048052 34357967
               33777984 33618070 34048181