Mesoscale Discussion 1739
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far northern South Carolina into
   southern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111731Z - 112030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado or two is possible through the afternoon. A WW
   issuance is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Gradual intensification of low-topped convection along
   a confluence band associated with post-tropical cyclone Delta has
   been noted over the past couple of hours per latest KCAE and MRMS
   mosaic radar data. The ambient environment ahead of these storms is
   modestly buoyant, with the latest Mesoanalysis and RAP forecast
   soundings depicting MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg in spots. Effective
   bulk shear is around 35 knots ahead of the confluence band. Veering
   vertical wind profiles in the sfc-850 mb layer are also contributing
   to 100-200 m2/s2 effective SRH, particularly in close proximity to a
   warm frontal zone located just north of the NC/SC border area. As
   such, storms interacting with the warm front will have the best
   potential for producing a tornado. 

   Nonetheless, the overall severe threat is expected to remain
   somewhat limited, as also suggested by the 12Z HREF and last few
   runs of the HRRR. As such, a WW issuance is not expected at this
   time.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 10/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35168027 35217959 35007852 34817796 34677755 34467743
               34227756 33917785 33767824 33567869 33477899 33397943
               33438002 33608032 33738051 33938071 34028078 34238077
               34468074 34748063 34948053 35168027