Mesoscale Discussion 1741
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

   Areas affected...Southwest MN...Extreme southeast ND...Extreme
   eastern SD...Eastern NE...Western IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 112052Z - 112215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is expected between 21Z-23Z. The
   strongest storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and
   hail. Watch issuance is possible once initiation appears imminent.

   DISCUSSION...At 2045Z, a strong upper trough with several embedded
   vorticity maxima is moving into the northern and central Great
   Plains. In association with this feature, a deep surface low is
   located over the Canadian Prairies, with a trailing cold front
   moving into the eastern Dakotas and central NE. A persistent cumulus
   field has been noted across southeast ND into eastern SD and
   northeast NE this afternoon, in association with the an axis of
   deeper low-level moisture. MLCAPE has increased into the 1000-1500
   J/kg range this afternoon from northeast NE into eastern SD, with
   weakening inhibition as suggested by recent mesoanalyses and the
   gradually deepening cumulus field. 

   Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing of initiation across
   this area, with recent HRRR runs and the 18Z NAM nest suggesting
   development by 22Z, though the primary front will not arrive until
   closer to 23Z-00Z. Whenever development occurs, rather quick upscale
   growth is expected along and just behind the primary front, though
   effective shear of 30-40 kt may support organized multicells or a
   few supercells with any initial semi-discrete storms. Steep midlevel
   lapse rates will support a severe hail threat early in the
   convective evolution, while severe wind gusts may become the primary
   threat by this evening as the mode becomes increasingly linear along
   the front. 

   Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is possible for some portion of
   this area once initiation appears imminent.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 10/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...

   LAT...LON   41599811 42779749 43629746 44269740 44889739 45699747
               46029745 46569719 46749601 46569521 46179476 45149426
               43509415 42369453 41759509 41249551 40999581 40799621
               41339835 41599811