Mesoscale Discussion 1749
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0453 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020

   Areas affected...northwest Missouri...central Iowa...southwest
   Wisconsin...far northwest Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 222153Z - 230000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage mainly north of
   the front through evening, with at least isolated severe hail the
   most likely threat.

   DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to push south from south-central
   Iowa into Kansas, with cold, stable conditions behind. Farther east
   into Iowa and northern Illinois, the boundary remains a warm front,
   with receding stratus at the moment.

   Storms are currently forming above the cold air from northeast
   Kansas into central Iowa. With cool temperatures aloft, adequate
   deep-layer shear as well as minimal melting potential in the low
   levels, large hail cannot be ruled out this evening as storms
   increase in coverage.

   Farther east, the 21Z DVN sounding depicts an unstable air mass with
   weak CIN, although there are subsident layers around 850 and 700 mb.
   The wind profile is rather impressive with 250-300 m2/s2 effective
   SRH. However, it appears there is little currently to induce
   surface-based storms except for the main boundary. Visible imagery
   shows a gradual decrease in CU fields south of the front, but
   increasing CU along a Washington to Jackson county Iowa line along
   the front.

   The most likely scenario will be for storms to become elevated with
   time as they form and move east/northeast.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 10/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   43819022 43978953 43668912 43188890 42398905 41858999
               41199218 39979480 40469541 41679446 42559315 43819022