Mesoscale Discussion 1750
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern lower Michigan...central and
   northern Indiana and northwest Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231721Z - 231915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...One or two bands of strong thunderstorms likely will
   continue to develop across the region through 3-5 PM EDT,
   accompanied by an increasing risk for potentially damaging wind
   gusts.

   DISCUSSION...The deepening surface low appears likely to migrate
   into/across and northeast of Lake Huron during the next few hours,
   with strongest south-southwesterly 850 mb flow on the order of 40-50
   kt developing across southeastern Ontario into Quebec.  At the same
   time, the 70-90 kt 500 mb speed maximum and mid-level cold core
   generally lag to the southwest, and to the cool side of trailing
   cold front.  Still, southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric mean flow
   appears on the order of 30-50 kt, along and ahead of the front,
   across southeastern lower Michigan, as storms begin to intensify in
   a narrow band near the front.

   The most vigorous convection may still be occurring just to the
   immediate cool side of the front, but has probably been aided by
   inflow emanating from the moistening pre-frontal boundary layer. 
   Despite the relatively warm mid-level temperatures, insolation is
   contributing to the warm sector boundary-layer destabilization,
   which may include CAPE generally increasing in excess of 1000 J/kg.

   It is possible ongoing storms could continue to intensify and become
   the most prominent storms later this afternoon, but model output and
   latest observational data suggest that another narrow convective
   band may develop and intensify just ahead of the eastward advancing
   cold front by 19-21Z.  Potential for strong to severe surface gusts
   seems more probable with convection within the warm sector, where
   thermodynamic profiles will be more conducive to the downward
   transfer of higher momentum to the surface.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 10/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

   LAT...LON   44388191 43598030 40098339 39378704 40178661 41968527
               44388191