Mesoscale Discussion 1751
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0130 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern IN...southeastern
   IL...western/central KY...far southwestern OH...western/middle
   TN...southeastern MO...and northeastern AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231830Z - 232100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to damaging winds and perhaps some
   marginally severe hail may occur through the afternoon. Watch
   issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has formed this afternoon both along and
   ahead of a cold front extending from the Midwest/OH Valley to the
   Mid-South. The stronger mid-level flow associated with an
   eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest and Great
   Lakes will remain mostly displaced to the north of these areas,
   which may tend to limit deep-layer shear. Even so, around 20-35 kt
   of southwesterly low/mid-level winds are present per multiple VWPs,
   which should be sufficient for modest storm organization. Multicell
   clusters and short line segments are expected to be the primary
   storm mode, with convection likely consolidating along the
   eastward-moving front with time. Diurnal heating of a moist
   low-level airmass ahead of the front is supporting around 1500-2000
   J/kg of MLCAPE, even though mid-level lapse rates remain fairly
   modest. Some steepening of low-level lapse rates has also occurred,
   and convective downdrafts may be capable of producing isolated
   strong to damaging winds as storms move eastward through the
   afternoon. Occasional instances of marginally severe hail may also
   occur with any semi-discrete storms. Current expectations are that
   the marginal effective bulk shear will probably limit storm
   organization and intensity, with an overall isolated/marginal severe
   risk. Accordingly, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 10/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35088995 35439040 36449070 36969054 37838940 38388846
               39278723 39308641 39288531 39238402 39178374 39088346
               38748340 37598457 36518574 35298693 35088823 35088995