Mesoscale Discussion 1758
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

   Areas affected...portions of west Texas and far western Oklahoma

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 270522Z - 271115Z

   SUMMARY...Forcing for ascent will gradually overspread the
   discussion area from west to east, resulting in a broad area of
   icing through 11Z Tuesday.

   DISCUSSION...At 05Z, mid-level frontogenetical forcing was beginning
   to induce areas of light to moderate precipitation in western
   portions of the discussion area.  The forcing was occurring atop a
   cold, yet moist low-level airmass, with an appreciable warm nose
   (4-7C at 700 hPa) favoring a mix of sleet and freezing rain as the
   precipitation shield continues to expand.  Resultant profiles also
   suggest potential for robust, lightning-producing convection that
   may also enhance precipitation rates in a few areas.  Over the next
   several hours, models indicate that this precipitation shield will
   expand while migrating northeastward.  Freezing-rain rates should
   exceed 0.05-0.1 inch per hour for several hours on the southern and
   eastern extent of the discussion area (generally from Midland to
   Abilene to Altus) where shallower cold air should limit the amount
   of refreezing of precipitation.  Farther north, deeper cold air
   should tend to support more sleet, with accumulations of 0.25 to 0.5
   inch sleet per three hours possible in a few areas.

   ..Cook.. 10/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35020302 35620272 36280184 36580014 36249947 35499922
               34439927 33839934 32429937 31389960 30789996 30510071
               30290171 30310248 30750297 31590341 32440341 35020302