Mesoscale Discussion 1759
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0419 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

   Areas affected...Northwest TX...Western/Central OK

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 270919Z - 271315Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet will increase across far northwest
   TX and western/central OK over the next few hours. Relatively high
   precipitation rates and lightning are possible within the deeper
   convective cells.

   DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield, with numerous embedded
   convective elements, continues to spread northeastward ahead of the
   shortwave trough moving into the southern High Plains. Recent
   surface observations place the freezing line from near BKD in North
   Texas northeastward through south-central OK to just north of TUL in
   northeast OK. The majority of the precipitation spreading
   northeastward will remain north of this line. 06Z regional soundings
   as well as the latest RAP forecast soundings also show a
   well-defined warm layer between 850 mb and 700 mb, with maximum
   temperatures from 4 to 8 deg C. Some modest instability also exists
   above this layer between the warm nose and the cold mid-level
   temperatures. These thermal profiles support a mix of sleet and
   freezing rain, as well as lightning within the deep cores. Based on
   recent radar and lightning trends, the highest precipitation rates
   over the next few hours are expected from parts of northwest TX into
   central OK.

   ..Mosier.. 10/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34450045 36310000 36779853 36229735 35279692 33849795
               33509866 33579971 34450045