Mesoscale Discussion 1760
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0840 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

   Areas affected...Northwest Texas...central and western
   Oklahoma...and far southern Kansas

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 271340Z - 271745Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet will continue from central
   Oklahoma into the eastern Texas Panhandle through the remainder of
   the morning.

   DISCUSSION...Recent mPING reports from central OK and northwest
   Texas indicate that freezing rain with embedded pockets of sleet
   continue to overspread the region. The recent 12 UTC Norman, OK
   sounding reveals a 7-8 C warm nose between 800-700 mb on top of a ~1
   km deep sub-freezing level (with a minimum temperature near -6 C).
   This thermodynamic profile supports the observed precipitation
   trends, and with little change expected in the next few hours,
   should continue to favor freezing rain with embedded sleet. The
   strong 850-700 mb isentropic ascent that is the primary forcing of
   this morning's precipitation is expected to persist into the early
   afternoon hours, especially across central OK per recent guidance.
   This will also act to reinforce the warm nose aloft and continue to
   support freezing rain. Although models do show a signal for surface
   temperatures to warm just above freezing by around 18 UTC for
   central OK, there is some uncertainty in the temperature forecast
   given widespread cloud cover, persistent northerly winds/weak cold
   advection at the surface, and only modest warm advection at around
   925 mb. As such, confidence in ice accumulations will remain highest
   along and west of the I-44 corridor where precipitation along the
   mid-level warm front is most likely to overlap with sub-freezing
   surface temperatures through the early afternoon. Due to the early
   timing of this winter storm, fall foliage remains on most trees,
   which when combined with ice accumulation and 10-15 mph surface
   winds will increase the potential for widespread power outages
   through the day.

   ..Moore.. 10/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35860061 36839954 37339883 37819762 37999674 37679610
               37019568 36269616 35329695 34959710 34199742 33699837
               33339891 33309939 33510018 33840067 34530084 35370079
               35860061