Mesoscale Discussion 1763
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0820 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

   Areas affected...west Texas...western Oklahoma...and southwestern
   Kansas

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 280120Z - 280715Z

   SUMMARY...A band of mixed winter precipitation has organized in the
   Texas South Plains and will spread northward/northeastward over the
   next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level
   vorticity maximum over far southeastern New Mexico was contributing
   to re-development of precipitation along an axis from near DHT to
   near MAF over the past hour.  The associated convection was
   exhibiting copious flashes of lightning, indicating local
   enhancements of precipitation rates due to instability rooted atop
   the mid-level warm nose at around 700 hPa.  Beneath that unstable
   layer, sub-freezing temperatures will result in areas of freezing
   rain and sleet, with freezing rain accumulations of 0.05-0.1 inch
   per hour mixed with sleet accumulations potentially as high as
   0.25-0.5 inch per hour.  These rates will be locally higher near
   stronger downpours.

   Over time, models indicate that this axis of precipitation will
   migrate and redevelop eastward, eventually reaching portions of
   western Oklahoma, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwestern Kansas.
   Heavier icing will likely occur in these areas in the 03Z-06Z
   timeframe.

   ..Cook.. 10/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   35359830 34729877 34269926 32580008 31660104 31600169
               31540198 31630245 31810276 32360288 33530284 35750249
               36580232 36990189 37210164 37460117 37570035 37519952
               37299897 36709814 36059808 35489809 35359830