Mesoscale Discussion 1766
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1126 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

   Areas affected...parts of southern and eastern
   Louisiana...southeastern Mississippi...southwestern Alabama...and
   western portions of the Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 281626Z - 281900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Risk for brief tornadoes will increase with time from
   southern Louisiana eastward to western portions of the Florida
   Panhandle, with risk spreading northeastward/inland with time.  A
   tornado watch will be issued.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows Hurricane Zeta
   over the Gulf of Mexico south of Louisiana, roughly 125 nautical
   miles south of coastal Terrebonne Parish.  The storm is moving
   northward at around 18 mph, and is expected to make a gradual turn
   to a more northeastward motion with time (please see the latest
   forecasts from the National Hurricane Center), making landfall in
   the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish vicinity in roughly the 21Z to 22Z
   time frame.

   As the storm approaches the central Gulf Coast region, strong flow
   surrounding the system will result in gradually strengthening
   low-level shear across the area -- increasingly supportive of inland
   updraft rotation.  Cellular convection is currently indicated by
   satellite/radar data in outer bands north and east of the center,
   which will gradually spread onshore with time.  While additional
   diurnal heating across the discussion area will be substantially
   hindered by expansive/associated cloud cover, rich Gulf moisture
   that continues advecting northwestward (mid 70s surface dewpoints)
   will contribute to minimally sufficient CAPE for persistence of a
   few stronger cellular updrafts.  As such, associated/accompanying
   tornado risk will warrant Tornado Watch issuance, most likely by 18z
   to 19Z.

   ..Goss.. 10/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29009134 29639114 30818989 32078829 32168691 31778579
               29888632 28418887 28259052 28689123 29009134