Mesoscale Discussion 1768
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0623 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Mississippi though much of
   southwestern Alabama

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 502...

   Valid 282323Z - 290130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 502 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for storms capable of producing tornadoes is
   beginning to increase, and likely will maximize across and northeast
   of the Mobile AL area by around 8-9 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...The low-level circulation center of Zeta is migrating
   northeastward at 20-25 kt, inland of the southeastern Louisiana
   coast, and appears likely to continue rapidly across the New Orleans
   vicinity into southeastern Mississippi through 01-03Z.  Although it
   will probably undergo at least some weakening, southeasterly to
   southerly flow on its eastern/northeastern periphery around the 850
   mb level may be maintained at 50-80+ kt.  This will contribute to
   considerable enlargement of clockwise curved low-level hodographs
   inland of coastal areas during the next few hours. 

   Latest NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate that
   low-level hodographs will become maximized across the Mobile through
   Evergreen AL vicinity, where mid 70s F surface dew points are
   already present and contributing to modest boundary-layer CAPE ahead
   of the mid-level warm core.  A number of storms with embedded
   low-level mesocyclones are evident within the corridor of stronger
   low-level shear, in outer bands offshore, but already beginning to
   pivot inland of far southeastern Mississippi coastal areas.  As
   these continue to spread and/or develop inland, occasional
   intensification probably will be accompanied by a risk for
   tornadoes.  One or two of these could be briefly strong.

   ..Kerr.. 10/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31158862 32418772 32438671 31128612 30578663 30418782
               30288853 31158862