Mesoscale Discussion 1769
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1104 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of central/southern Alabama...the Florida
   Panhandle and western Georgia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 502...

   Valid 290404Z - 290600Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 502 continues.

   SUMMARY...At least some risk for storms capable of producing
   tornadoes may linger into the overnight hours, mainly along coastal
   areas of the Florida Panhandle through 1-4 AM CDT.  It is not
   certain that a new tornado watch will be needed, but this will be
   coordinated prior to the Midnight CDT expiration of Tornado Watch
   502.

   DISCUSSION...The remnants of Zeta continue to migrate rapidly inland
   of the Gulf coast, and the mid-level warm core is in the process of
   spreading across southeastern Mississippi into southwestern Alabama.
    This generally appears to also coincide with shrinking of low-level
   hodographs, and diminishing tornado potential, in response to
   veering and weakening of low-level flow, which will spread toward
   the Alabama/Georgia border through 06-09z.

   In advance of the mid-level warm core, despite the ongoing weakening
   of Zeta, south-southeasterly wind fields around the 850 mb level may
   remain on the order of 50-80 kt well into the overnight hours.  It
   appears that this will include 50+ kt (and enlarged clockwise curved
   low-level hodographs) as far south as coastal portions of the
   Florida Panhandle, where surface dew points in the mid 70s F are
   maintaining sizable mixed-layer CAPE.  Farther inland, where surface
   dew points are being maintained in the the lower 70s, and some
   surface cooling has occurred, CAPE appears appreciably weaker, and
   the extent to which the environment may be conducive to the risk for
   tornadoes is becoming more unclear.  The potential for tornadoes may
   not be completely negligible, but it may become increasingly focused
   in association with lingering bands of discrete cells forming over
   the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, before spreading inland across
   coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle through 06-09Z.

   ..Kerr.. 10/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   32328630 32858557 32208498 30788509 29898499 29578527
               29408605 28918694 29038788 29538792 30708720 31928656
               32328630