Mesoscale Discussion 1772
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0945 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

   Areas affected...North-Central North Carolina and Southeast Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 300245Z - 300515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A band of pre-frontal convection is slowly intensifying
   and organizing across north-central North Carolina.  Given the
   strong flow just above the surface, a threat for isolated damaging
   winds will accompany this convection.

   DISCUSSION...Forced ascent ahead of an approaching strong shortwave
   trough is contributing to a band of pre-frontal convection across
   north-central North Carolina.  The storms are expected to continue
   increasing in intensity and organization as the system ejects to the
   northeast.  The lapse rates are poor across the region, as evidenced
   by lack of observed lightning with the storms.  Nevertheless, strong
   wind fields above the ground (i.e., 50+ kts at 3-km AGL per RAX VWP)
   and sufficient instability will support isolated damaging wind
   gusts, especially if mesoscale organization increases. 
   Additionally, low-level shear and SRH are sufficient to support a
   brief tornado with any embedded circulations that may develop.

   ..Jirak/Hart.. 10/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   35767949 36257963 36997897 37447779 37407718 36707656
               36607658 36257690 35737813 35637874 35767949