Mesoscale Discussion 1773
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1036 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2020

   Areas affected...eastern NC into far southeast VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 011636Z - 011830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are possible by 18z across eastern
   North Carolina into southeast VA. A watch may be needed within the
   next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is slowly increasing late this morning as it
   shifts eastward into eastern NC and southeast VA ahead of a surface
   cold front. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F are aiding in
   weak destabilization as temperatures are warming into the low/mid
   70s. Additional destabilization is expected through early afternoon,
   though instability is expected to remain somewhat modest, around
   1000 J/kg or less. Southerly low level flow will continue to
   increase east of ongoing convection over the coastal plain. 16z
   mesoanalysis indicated effective shear has increased to 40+ kt
   across eastern NC and the LTX and AKQ VWP show enlarged, curved low
   level hodographs just ahead of the surface front/trough. Overall
   shear environment should provide a narrow corridor capable of
   supporting supercell structures. Furthermore, low level moisture and
   instability in conjunction with favorable low level shear/SRH should
   support low level rotation.

   The threat is somewhat conditional on storm mode, as convection so
   far as tended to be more linear along the surface boundary. More
   recently however, a few discrete cells have been increasing across
   Duplin and Pender Counties in southeast NC as low level shear
   increases. Additional CU development is also noted further north
   where cloud cover is thinner ahead of more linear convection. If
   more discrete convection is able to develop and be maintained ahead
   of the frontal band, a tornado or two will be possible. Additional
   isolated strong/damaging wind gusts also will be possible with
   supercells, as well as with any linear segments along the frontal
   boundary.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 11/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   36767724 37467635 37427582 37227536 36717517 35757525
               35087555 34507652 33817776 33707807 33877847 34137867
               34447865 35077821 35627783 36517735 36767724