Mesoscale Discussion 1776
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0702 PM CST Sun Nov 08 2020

   Areas affected...parts of southern Florida and the Keys

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 090102Z - 090330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Risk for a brief/weak tornado or two will gradually
   increase over the next couple of hours, though potential may never
   reach the point where tornado watch issuance becomes necessary.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows the center of Tropical Storm
   Eta roughly 55 miles south-southeast of the Miami-Dade county
   coastline.  The storm is moving slowly west-northwestward, and
   should make landfall over the Keys late this evening.

   Northeast of the center, a band of enhanced convection is indicated
   over the Bahamas.  Several cells within this band are exhibiting
   weak rotation per KMIA WSR-88D storm-relative velocity, with the
   lead cell roughly 50 miles from the Broward County coastline moving
   west-northwest at 25 kt.

   This evening's KMFL (Miami) RAOB indicates a near moist-adiabatic
   temperature profile, not particularly conducive for appreciable
   updraft strength.  However, a strong increase in easterly flow with
   height is indicated through the lowest km, resulting in low-level
   shear favorable for updraft rotation -- as confirmed by radar within
   the offshore convective band.

   Given motion of Eta and the associated convective bands, an
   increased threat for a brief tornado or two may spread inland over
   the next couple of hours given that ample low-level shear will be
   maintained across the area this evening/overnight.  However, given
   the lack of thermodynamic support for strong updrafts and any
   associated potential for substantial stretching, and weak
   deeper-layer shear, any risk for tornadoes should be limited to
   those of the weak/brief variety.

   ..Goss/Thompson.. 11/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   24898014 24848084 25448102 26168092 26858042 26817949
               26297894 25677902 24898014