Mesoscale Discussion 1777
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0852 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

   Areas affected...west-central...central...and northeast
   MO...west-central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101452Z - 101645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are organizing near the KS/MO border and
   will likely intensify as additional heating occurs during the next
   few hours as they move into central MO.  A severe thunderstorm watch
   or lower-tier tornado watch will likely be needed for portions of
   northeast MO into west-central IL towards midday.

   DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent
   mid-level shortwave trough (91 kt at 500mb sampled by the 12 UTC
   Dodge City, KS raob) over NE/KS and this feature will move into
   western IA/northwest MO by mid afternoon.  Surface analysis places a
   surface low near Kansas City with a cold front draped from
   Davenport, IA southwestward through Kansas City and
   south-southwestward to Tulsa.  Surface temperatures over central MO
   have warmed to near 70 deg F as of 8am with mid 60s farther
   northeast into west-central IL.  RAP forecast soundings indicate
   temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 70s by late morning. 
   As this additional heating occurs, a transition to surface-based
   thunderstorms will likely transpire.  

   Initially, a focused corridor for strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph)
   will accompany the squall line immediately near the surface low as
   it develops northeastward across north-central MO towards the
   IA/MO/IL border through midday.  The strength of the wind field
   supports a conditional risk for intermittent storm-scale rotation,
   especially where forcing will be maximized near the low as it
   develops northeastward.  A tornado risk could perhaps develop this
   afternoon on a localized basis with a quasi-discrete core embedded
   within the convective band or with a small-scale bowing segment. 
   Convective trends will be monitored over the next few hours for the
   possibility for a convective watch to be issued from parts of
   central MO northeastward into central IL.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 11/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39089399 40729150 40759013 40019008 38539173 37889340
               37869458 39089399