Mesoscale Discussion 1784
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

   Areas affected...Central/southern Illinois and portions of western
   Indiana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504...

   Valid 102301Z - 110100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Convection in central/southern Illinois is expected to
   continue to weaken with time. A few locally strong gusts are
   possible with any remaining strong convection given the strong
   low-level flow. Given observational trends, no downstream WW is
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends show a broken, disorganized
   convective line from just east of St. Louis to near Bloomington, IL.
   Despite strong wind shear, limited buoyancy (generally less than 500
   J/kg MLCAPE) has limited convective intensity. Strong wind fields
   will remain in place with at least weak moisture advection ahead of
   the line into western Indiana. A few locally strong gusts may occur
   with any remaining strong convection. However, the primary mid-level
   ascent is continuing to accelerate to the northeast into southern
   Minnesota as well as a cooling trend being noted in surface
   observations in eastern Illinois/western Indiana. Given these
   trends, convective intensity will likely gradually decrease this
   evening. No downstream WW is anticipated.

   ..Wendt.. 11/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39378690 38638753 38328876 38108960 38159016 38479029
               39528974 40518925 40608870 40448784 40108699 39378690