Mesoscale Discussion 1786
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0604 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

   Areas affected...Southwest Lower Michigan...Northwest Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 110004Z - 110200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging winds are possible with convection this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Strongly forced squall line remains organized as it
   progresses across southern lake Michigan this evening. Northern
   portions of this line have been efficient in producing severe wind
   gusts in excess of 50kt. While buoyancy is not as great over lower
   MI, lower 60s surface dew points have crept north along the
   southeastern shore of LM. With time this linear MCS should begin to
   diminish; however, strength of upper support and forward propagation
   speed in excess of 40kt suggests the risk of damaging winds is
   increasing across southwestern lower MI and northwestern IN.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 11/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41608754 43868644 43688524 42008590 41168685 41608754