Mesoscale Discussion 1793
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1036 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020

   Areas affected...southern/eastern North Carolina and northeastern
   South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121636Z - 121830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms across northeastern South Carolina may produce
   isolated damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado with progression
   across the discussion area.  A WW issuance is not anticipated for
   this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour or so, radar mosaic
   imagery/velocities indicate gradual organization and strengthening
   of a linear segment located over northeastern South Carolina
   near/northeast of FLO, with other convection increasing downstream
   of these areas.  These storms are in a marginally unstable
   warm-sector environment, with 70s dewpoints helping to maintain
   roughly 1000 J/kg MUCAPE despite poor lapse rates aloft and
   widespread clouds/precipitation across the region.  Nevertheless,
   deep shear profiles support some organization, with 125-150 J/kg
   0-3km SRH values supporting occasional rotation in the most
   persistent convection.  This environment may support an isolated
   tornado or damaging wind gusts with - especially with convection
   that can remain rooted near the surface and away from an
   undercutting, convectively modified boundary from near CLT to GSB to
   ECG.  Overall trends suggest that the environment will be too
   marginal to support any WW issuance.

   ..Cook.. 11/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   35957548 35857657 35407852 34857952 34167986 33517968
               33217929 33307865 33817761 34897605 35377525 35957548