Mesoscale Discussion 1794
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Northeast
   Oklahoma...Central/Southern Missouri...Northwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 142246Z - 142315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be issued shortly after 23z.

   DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent is
   spreading across eastern KS and is expected to induce deep
   convection along the northwestern edge of moisture return over the
   next hour or so. In fact, isolated showers are beginning to develop
   near the KS/OK/MO border along the eastern plume of steeper
   low-level lapse rates. Visible satellite imagery suggests several
   bands of deepening cumulus are forming ahead of the dryline/cold
   front and thunderstorms should mature within these bands over the
   next few hours. Given the strengthening wind fields and adequately
   buoyant surface-based parcels, there is concern for supercells and
   possibly a few tornadoes. A tornado watch appears warranted ahead of
   this development and will likely be issued shortly after 23z.

   ..Darrow/Thompson.. 11/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36019522 38839442 38759254 37199249 35579352 36019522