Mesoscale Discussion 1796
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1032 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

   Areas affected...Northern Arkansas...Southeast Missouri...Southern
   Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 150432Z - 150630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across northeast Arkansas into
   extreme southern Illinois after midnight.

   DISCUSSION...Sharp cold front is surging southeast at roughly 30kt,
   currently extending from central MO-northwest AR-southern OK. This
   boundary is quickly approaching the pre-frontal convective band that
   developed earlier this evening over MO, and will soon undercut the
   northwest AR activity. With time a broken squall line should evolve
   along the wind shift which will progress toward the MS River, likely
   extending from southern IL into extreme northeast AR by 730-08z. As
   the convection becomes more linear in nature, gusty winds should be
   the primary risk. Will continue to monitor this evolving squall line
   and the possibility for a new severe thunderstorm watch downstream.

   ..Darrow/Thompson.. 11/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   35689287 37709015 37258890 35839013 34859204 35689287