Mesoscale Discussion 1797
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0858 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

   Areas affected...northern Ohio...southeast Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151458Z - 151630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief period of sufficient destabilization may occur
   ahead of developing thunderstorms over southern Lower MI and eastern
   IN.  As this activity moves east-northeast into northern OH and
   southeast Lower MI, an isolated risk for strong to locally severe
   gusts could continue.  Convective trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broken band of thunderstorms
   immediately ahead of a cold front ---analyzed at 945am EST from
   southwestern Lower MI southward through eastern IN--- that is
   sweeping eastward across the southern Great Lakes.  Water-vapor
   imagery shows a powerful mid-level shortwave trough concurrently
   moving into the Great Lakes and 4am CST KILX VAD data indicated a
   130-kt 6-km AGL speed max moving into the southern Great Lakes.  The
   strong forcing for ascent/intense shear setup will probably aid in
   storm organization with time.  Nonetheless, only lower to mid 50s F
   temperatures have been analyzed to the west of the light-rain shield
   over northern OH and far southeast Lower MI 60 mi to the east of the
   convective band.  Appreciable uncertainty remains whether sufficient
   destabilization will occur across southeast Lower MI per latest
   forecast soundings.  It seems surface temperatures could perhaps be
   slightly warmer and greater destabilization could occur across
   northern OH, due to cloud breaks in northwest OH spreading eastward
   across the south shore of Lake Erie.  A 51-kt gust was observed at
   the Muncie, IN ASOS as of 941am EST.  In summary, the risk for
   strong to locally severe gusts may be greatest across northern OH
   where destabilization (100-250 J/kg MUCAPE) is most probable over
   the next several hours.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 11/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

   LAT...LON   41398473 42718346 43028243 41978089 41148144 40648245
               40448471 41398473