Mesoscale Discussion 1798
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1033 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

   Areas affected...north-central and northeast OH...far northwest PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 151633Z - 151730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A broken band of linear segments will potentially be
   capable of isolated to widely scattered 55-70 mph gusts across
   north-central into northeast OH through 2pm EST.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery as of 1120am EST shows a broken band of
   thunderstorms near the I-75 corridor from Cincinnati north to
   Toledo.  Surface observations across northern OH show temperatures
   in the mid 50s and surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 40s in
   northeast OH to the lower 50s in central OH.  Both ASOS at Lima, OH
   and Findlay, OH recently observed measured 57-kt and 53-kt gusts
   with the convective band.  

   Visible-satellite imagery shows a relatively narrow but significant
   area of cloud breaks immediately ahead of the convective band from
   southwest OH northward to west-central Lake Erie.  The zone of cloud
   breaks will likely shift eastward and be maintained due in part to
   mid-level dry air (reference water-vapor imagery) wrapping
   cyclonically through the base of the mid-level shortwave trough over
   the Great Lakes.

   Given the above mentioned factors influencing destabilization, it
   appears at least 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE will probably develop northeast
   from central OH into northeast OH during the next several hours. 
   Given the 60-kt flow at 2-km AGL at KCLE VAD, it seems plausible a
   risk for severe thunderstorms will continue into north-central OH
   during the next hour and eventually into northeast OH.  It is more
   uncertain whether a risk will eventually spread into parts of
   northwest PA.  However, some short-term CAM guidance does indicate a
   low-topped convective band moves through this region this afternoon.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 11/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   41458327 42128159 42437979 41787944 41267969 40608096
               39908395 41458327