Mesoscale Discussion 1802
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0320 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Lake Ontario...central NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152120Z - 152245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The broken linear segments over western NY will likely
   continue to transition to becoming elevated and less prone for
   severe gusts.  Unless observational trends in NY mesonet data
   reverse, a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely to the east of
   severe thunderstorm watch 510 over central NY.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a skeletal but sharp convective line
   over western NY that has fractured into a couple of linear segments.
    KBUF VAD shows very intense tropospheric flow with increasing speed
   with height (60 kt at 0.5 km AGL).  Lightning has largely diminished
   with the convective line as it moves into an increasingly
   CAPE-reduced airmass located over western NY.  Surface temperatures
   as of 4pm EST are generally in the upper 40s to near 50 deg F with
   cooler temperatures on the Tughill Plateau.  

   As a negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough over the Lower
   Great Lakes continues east-northeastward during the late
   afternoon/early evening, the strong forcing for ascent associated
   with this disturbance will likely maintain a convective band
   eastward into central NY and the western part of the Adirondacks. 
   However, the minimal CAPE and additional prospects for
   destabilization prior to squall line passage, will probably limit
   both the magnitude and coverage of strong gusts.  As a result,
   locally strong gusts are possible but severe gusts are doubtful as
   the convection becomes elevated.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 11/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43597677 44167583 43707526 42567559 42037624 42027704
               43597677