Mesoscale Discussion 1803
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0527 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of upstate New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152327Z - 160200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may accompany low-topped storms
   through the early evening hours. Stabilizing low-level conditions
   may limit the widespread damaging wind threat to some degree, and a
   WW issuance is not currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...A pair of low-topped squall lines are currently
   progressing across parts of upstate New York. These lines are moving
   into an airmass characterized by negligible buoyancy, with surface
   temperatures mainly in the 40s F, and with low to mid-level
   stability depicted by the latest RAP forecast soundings. While
   low-level warm-air advection is underway, significant
   destabilization is not currently expected. Nonetheless, a very
   strong low-level wind profile is in place, with ambient wind
   magnitudes exceeding 40 knots at 925 mb, and even stronger values
   noted within the 850-700 mb layer. As such, any downward momentum
   transport that can occur with the aforementioned lines could lead to
   a damaging gust. Still, the aforementioned stable conditions suggest
   that damaging gusts should remain isolated, and A WW issuance is not
   anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42167454 42147562 42257636 42637690 44237631 44797515
               44877429 44397374 43867354 43227355 42947361 42717370
               42427383 42177425 42167454