Mesoscale Discussion 1804
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0552 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

   Areas affected...far eastern Pennsylvania...eastern
   Maryland...Delaware...New Jersey

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511...

   Valid 152352Z - 160145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging gusts continues across Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 0511. Damaging gusts will be primarily associated
   with a line of storms.

   DISCUSSION...A low-topped squall line is currently moving across
   eastern PA and northeast MD, with a history of at least scattered
   wind damage from Cumberland to Lebanon and Lancaster Counties in PA,
   down to Frederick County MD. Storm tops barely reach 25 kft, and the
   anticipated line is expected to continue in an ambient thermodynamic
   environment characterized by surface temperatures exceeding 60F and
   very marginal buoyancy (with the latest RAP forecast soundings
   showing 100-150 J/kg MUCAPE, mainly within the 850-600 mb layer).
   Despite the weak, elevated instability, very strong forcing for
   ascent and intense low-level wind fields suggest that any downward
   momentum transport would support damaging gusts with the more mature
   segments of the squall. The damaging wind threat is expected to
   continue until the squall moves offshore, which will likely be
   within the next 2.5-3.5 hours.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38617500 38537632 38687733 38917813 39707706 40667612
               41397569 41487488 41367427 40987403 40507387 39787390
               39397419 38937458 38617500