Mesoscale Discussion 1805
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0601 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

   Areas affected...Southern NY...Long Island...Southern New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 160001Z - 160100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging winds may accompany convection this evening.
   Severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted by 0100z.

   DISCUSSION...Strongly forced band of convection has recently matured
   along a progressive cold front across eastern PA arcing into
   northern MD. This squall line is surging east at roughly 35kt and
   should advance across northern NJ into western portions of the NYC
   metro area by 0130z. While low-level lapse rates are poor, surface
   dew points are expected to rise into the mid 50s across portions of
   southern New England. This moisture increase may be just enough for
   buoyant near-surface based parcels. If so, stronger winds in the
   lowest 1km could mix to the surface posing some risk for damaging
   winds and isolated 50kt+ wind gusts. Will continue to monitor this
   region for possible severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Darrow/Thompson.. 11/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...

   LAT...LON   41367467 42457174 42247057 41237077 40357362 41367467