Mesoscale Discussion 1808
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0517 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern Kansas...central
   Oklahoma...north-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 513...

   Valid 242317Z - 250115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 513
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to continue across Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 0513. Additional isolated severe thunderstorms
   may develop just north/east of the watch in southern Kansas into
   eastern Oklahoma as well as into northern Texas. Large hail,
   damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado cannot be ruled out with the
   stronger storms. An additional WW may be needed downstream.

   DISCUSSION...Quasi-discrete convection has grown upscale into a more
   continuous linear segment along a cold front, aligned roughly from
   AVK to CLK. More isolated cellular development, with an uptick in
   lightning flash rates and echo tops exceeding 30kft, has also been
   noted along a dryline across southwestern OK into northwest TX.
   Ahead of both storm regimes, a narrow and weak but highly sheared
   warm sector remains in place. Based on latest Mesoanalysis,
   temperatures just over 60F (with upper 50s F dewpoints) beneath near
   7 C/km mid-level lapse rates are supporting a narrow corridor of
   around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest veering of 35-50 kt 925-850 mb
   southerly flow overspreading this warm sector is promoting 200-300
   m2/s2 effective SRH, with even stronger flow aloft contributing to
   50+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, any storms embedded in the
   line or established in the warm sector will have the potential to
   produce damaging gusts and large hail. Given the magnitude of
   low-level shear present, the most intense QLCS circulations or
   sustained supercell structures may produce a tornado.

   Much of southern KS to northern TX east of the I-35 corridor have
   remained under overcast skies and cooler conditions. However, strong
   sfc/low-level warm-air advection may promote some additional
   destabilization ahead of the ongoing line/discrete cellular
   development, and a downstream WW issuance is possible.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 11/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33929874 35289841 36089844 36759840 37349817 37729737
               37769709 37669579 37309468 36869425 36399433 35979465
               35119507 34919525 33979580 33309616 32749638 32749645
               32509735 32749824 33139870 33929874