Mesoscale Discussion 1809
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0803 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma through northeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 250203Z - 250330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging
   wind and perhaps a brief tornado or two as they move through eastern
   Oklahoma and north central through northeast Texas. Trends are being
   monitored for a WW.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have evolved into a predominantly linear mode
   from northeast Oklahoma into northeast TX as the zone of forcing
   accompanying a cold front intercepts the moist axis. Temperatures in
   the mid to upper 60s F and dewpoints in the low 60s F are supporting
   MLCAPE from 500 to 1000 J/kg. The strong forcing and wind fields
   accompanying a vigorous shortwave trough moving through OK will
   continue to support support this band of storms next few hours. Wind
   profiles with 45-50 kt effective bulk shear will promote embedded
   organized structures including bowing segments and mesovortices.
   Low-level shear with large hodographs reside in warm sector.
   However, the effective storm relative helicity may be somewhat
   reduced do to the near-surface stable layer. Nevertheless, the
   environment appears sufficient to support a threat for damaging wind
   and a brief tornado or two.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 11/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33519666 34639585 35589542 35599444 34589424 32559522
               32519724 33519666