Mesoscale Discussion 1810
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0820 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of northeast Oklahoma...extreme southeast
   Kansas...far southwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 250220Z - 250315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may accompany an ongoing squall line
   before gradual weakening begins to limit the severe threat. A
   downstream WW issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...An ongoing bowing line segment, with embedded cells
   occasionally reaching 40 kft and producing up to golfball sized hail
   and 60 mph wind gusts, is progressing across southeast KS/northeast
   OK. Ahead of the line, temperatures/dewpoints are currently in the
   lower 50s F, with MLCAPE barely reaching a few hundred J/kg as the
   line begins to outpace the primary corridor of instability. Strong
   diffluence aloft (owing to the left exit region of a 100+ kt 300 mb
   jet streak) and ample positive 500 mb vorticity advection are
   contributing to strong deep-layer ascent and associated mechanical
   lift to support vigorous convection in the near term, where a few
   more instances of severe hail/wind may still occur. 

   Nonetheless, the line is expected to continue moving rapidly
   eastward and slowly outpace the warm sector. Latest RAP forecast
   soundings depict a deeper, stable downstream boundary layer, which
   should reduce efficient downward momentum transport/damaging gust
   potential to a degree. Some of the latest HRRR runs also depict
   weakening convective trends, especially as the line moves into MO.
   Given the short-term nature of the more vigorous severe threat and
   downstream expected weakening trends, convective trends will
   continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 11/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   35859641 36759609 37399582 37539514 37619420 37619332
               37149297 36689388 36059455 35629496 35379595 35859641