Mesoscale Discussion 1812
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0133 AM CST Wed Nov 25 2020

   Areas affected...East Texas...Northwest Louisiana...Far Southern
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514...

   Valid 250733Z - 250930Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated wind damage and tornado threat is expected to
   continue for a couple more hours across the Arklatex. However, the
   threat should become increasingly marginal with time and WW 514 will
   be allowed to expire at 0800Z.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a squall line
   ongoing from near Little Rock, Arkansas south-southwestward to just
   northwest of Shreveport and into east Texas. The latest RAP analysis
   shows a pocket of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across
   northwest Arkansas and far east Texas. On water vapor imagery, an
   upper-level trough is located in the southern Plains with a 70 to 90
   kt mid-level jet from north Texas into eastern Oklahoma. The eastern
   side of the mid-level jet is associated with a band of focused
   large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear. This combined with
   the instability should sustain the line for a few more hours as it
   moves eastward across southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana and far
   east Texas. An isolated wind damage and tornado threat will be
   possible with the more organized parts of the line. A severe threat
   will also be possible if an isolated cell can strengthen ahead of
   the line. However, instability will continue to weaken across the
   region tonight. For this reason, the severe threat is expected to
   become increasingly marginal and additional weather watch issuance
   appears unlikely.

   ..Broyles.. 11/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   30539551 30469499 30689326 31539222 32369150 33129146
               33509199 33569334 33029401 31929481 31259572 30769591
               30539551