Mesoscale Discussion 1814
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020

   Areas affected...southeast LA...southern MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251844Z - 252045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Several low-topped supercells will potentially be capable
   of isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a weak/brief tornado.

   DISCUSSION...KLIX radar imagery over the past hour has shown several
   low-topped supercells across southeast LA into southern MS with
   weak/transient mesocyclone rotation (rotational velocities at or
   below 25 kt).  Visible-satellite imagery shows a cirrus canopy above
   a bubbling cumulus field over southeast LA and the central Gulf
   Coast.  Surface analysis shows southerly low-level flow with
   temperatures near 80 deg F and dewpoints in the upper 60s.

   Forecast soundings show MLCAPE around 750 J/kg with a gradually
   veering/strengthening wind profile with height.  With the storm
   cluster persisting through peak heating, it seems likely at least
   some storm organization/low-level rotation will continue for the
   next couple of hours.  However, as the larger-scale trough continues
   to become increasingly displaced from the region later this
   afternoon, a gradual reduction in both the number of weakly rotating
   cells and the waning propensity for weak storm rotation will
   probably occur.

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 11/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30449057 31068957 31368858 31048829 30588855 30258977
               29789079 29929113 30449057