Mesoscale Discussion 1815
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1151 PM CST Wed Nov 25 2020

   Areas affected...East-central/southeast AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 260551Z - 260745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential for a surface-based supercell exists overnight
   and a low probability tornado event is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Initially elevated convection has persisted within a
   southwest/northeast-oriented corridor of low-level confluence from
   central AL to northwest GA with some embedded lightning detected
   from Coosa to Randolph counties in AL. Surface dew
   points/temperatures have warmed over the past couple hours from
   southwest AL into south-central AL (see time-series for Montgomery).
   RAP/NAM forecast soundings suggest 66-67 F surface dew points will
   be conducive to MLCAPE increasing above 500 J/kg. Despite earlier
   progs suggesting low-level flow not increasing, recent VWP data from
   KMXX indicate the opposite is occurring with 0-1 km shear around 35
   kt yielding an increasingly enlarged low-level hodograph. If a cell
   or two can become sustained farther southwest into the more buoyant
   air mass, a supercell may develop by 07-08Z with an attendant
   primary risk of a tornado.

   ..Grams.. 11/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   33108607 33318555 33348518 32848507 32288536 31958568
               31788634 31948704 32368713 32868658 33108607