Mesoscale Discussion 1816
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0439 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Alabama/far western Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 261039Z - 261215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong storms with a localized severe risk may persist
   through the early morning hours across parts of southeast Alabama
   into far western Georgia. Localized wind damage and/or a brief
   tornado cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has persisted much of the overnight with a
   modest increase in intensity (evidenced by lightning
   flashes/radar-derived updraft intensity) of storms within a
   northeast/southwest-oriented corridor across southeast Alabama into
   west-central/north-central Georgia near/ahead of an
   east-southeastward advancing cold front. The strongest convection
   has generally paralleled I-85 in Alabama over the past couple of
   hours, where supercell characteristics have been observed including
   weak/transient rotation.

   Surface temperatures and dewpoints have tended to rise overnight,
   which is minimizing boundary layer inhibition. Latest Maxwell/MXX
   WSR-88D VWP data still indicates upwards of 40 kt of 0-6 km bulk
   shear, which will remain supportive of some supercell structures in
   conjunction with MLCAPE estimated to be on the order of 600-1000
   J/kg. Low-level shear will tend to gradually weaken through/beyond
   sunrise as winds in the lowest 1-2 km AGL continue to veer
   southwesterly and weaken. While the severe storm risk is expected to
   remain low, localized wind damage and/or a brief tornado cannot be
   entirely ruled out over the next few hours.

   ..Guyer.. 11/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

   LAT...LON   31948617 32408600 33378453 32958396 32468391 32238397
               31878444 31578525 31678596 31948617