Mesoscale Discussion 1820
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0705 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

   Areas affected...The Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 300105Z - 300300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection moving onshore and into a helicity-rich
   environment will continue to pose a tornado threat over the next few
   hours for the central Florida Panhandle.

   DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery shows scattered shallow
   convection continuing to move onshore into the central FL Panhandle.
   These storms are primarily developing along the pre-frontal
   confluence axis in the vicinity of a deepening surface low north of
   the Mobile, AL region and south of a surface warm front that is
   gradually mixing north across the FL Panhandle and into southern
   AL/GA. Recent RAP Mesoanalysis suggests sufficient instability is in
   place across the central FL Panhandle (roughly 500-1000 J/kg
   MLCAPE), but the 00 UTC TLH sounding shows very limited instability
   further east, suggesting that the favorable thermodynamic
   environment is rather limited spatially and confined closer to the
   confluence axis over the central Panhandle and perhaps along the
   coast where slightly higher theta-e air is noted. Despite
   instability limitations, strong deep layer shear and ample low-level
   helicity (approximately 300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH sampled from the KTLH
   VWP) will continue to support an inland tornado threat.

   The tornado potential will also likely be conditional on the
   development and maintenance of discrete convection within the open
   warm sector or along the confluence axis where forcing for ascent
   has been stronger. Given the propensity for long storm residence
   times and destructive storm interactions along this boundary, the
   number of potential tornadic storms may be limited. Due to the
   limited spatial scope of this threat and storm mode concerns, a
   watch is not anticipated. However, a small corridor with a favorable
   environment for severe convection is expected to persist through the
   evening hours across the FL Panhandle and into north FL as the low
   continues to deepen.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 11/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30948597 30928536 30648492 30328458 29968461 29678493
               29578526 29718558 29968585 30198613 30288631 30758619
               30948597