Mesoscale Discussion 1821
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

   Areas affected...The Southern North Carolina Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 300516Z - 300715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong convection may gradually move onshore over the next
   few hours and pose the risk for isolated strong to severe winds and
   perhaps a brief tornado.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from the southern NC coast shows a
   few stronger convective cells offshore that have exhibited
   supercellular characteristics over the past hour. Northward moisture
   flux into the region (as sampled by the 00 UTC CHS sounding) has
   allowed for an increase in instability with offshore MLCAPE values
   estimated to be between 500-1000 J/kg per recent RAP Mesoanalysis.
   This instability, coupled with strong (50 knot) deep layer shear
   over the region has allow for a few stronger storms to persist as
   they migrate north/northeastward. A few of these storms may move
   onshore and introduce a severe wind threat to the immediate coastal
   areas. The LTX VWP recently sampled 240 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, which
   suggests that sufficiently low-level shear is in place along the
   coast to support at least a low-end tornado threat with any storm
   exhibiting a sustained mesocyclone. No watch is currently
   anticipated since this threat appears to be limited spatially to
   just the coastal areas. However, a more favorable environment should
   continue to progress inland overnight as the main surface low
   (currently over eastern AL/western GA) deepens as it translates
   northeast through morning.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 11/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

   LAT...LON   33807844 34207821 34467777 34687731 34857688 34827652
               34627613 34407613 34197640 33977707 33737768 33587808
               33627833 33807844