Mesoscale Discussion 1822
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

   Areas affected......Northern Florida...Southern Georgia...

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 300656Z - 300930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A wind-damage and tornado threat may develop tonight
   across parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia. Weather watch
   issuance could become necessary.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows 1003 mb low in
   western Georgia with a cold front extending southward from the low
   into far southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A corridor of
   maximized low-level moisture is present ahead of the front from the
   far eastern Gulf of Mexico extending northward into the eastern
   Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia. The RAP is indicating
   that moderate instability exists along this corridor from southwest
   of Albany, Georgia to the coast south of Tallahassee, where MLCAPE
   is estimated in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are
   ongoing near the instability axis and will continue to move eastward
   over the next few hours. Instability should continue to be
   maintained or could slowly increase ahead of the storms across
   northern Florida and south-central Georgia. In addition, the
   Tallahassee WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6 km shear near 60 kt and 0-3 km
   storm relative helicity near 400 m2/s2, which will support a
   conditional severe threat. The main uncertainty is storm mode. If
   the storms can exhibit supercell characteristics, then a tornado and
   wind-damage threat will likely develop. The area will continue to be
   monitored for the possibility of watch issuance.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 11/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29188305 29598356 29748390 29798431 29798453 30008497
               30508487 31348457 31688427 31798338 31258211 29748217
               29188305