Mesoscale Discussion 1824
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far eastern VA into the Delmarva
   Peninsula...southeastern PA...and southern/central NJ

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 515...

   Valid 302002Z - 302130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 515 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for isolated tornadoes and damaging
   straight-line wind gusts will shift northeastward this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of low-topped convection has developed
   this afternoon from parts of eastern VA into eastern MD. Instability
   gradually decreases with northward extent across this region and
   into NJ, but it should still be sufficient to support isolated
   strong to severe thunderstorms. Latest VWP from KDOX shows a very
   favorable wind profile for organized convection, with nearly 50 kt
   of 0-1 km shear and strong deep-layer shear as well. Current
   expectations are for this broken line to move rapidly northeastward
   across the Delmarva Peninsula, southeastern PA, and into
   southern/central NJ through the remainder of the afternoon. Strong
   to damaging winds will continue to be a concern with small, bowing
   line segments given the strength of the low-level flow. Recent
   mesoanalysis is estimating effective SRH around 200-300 m2/s2 across
   the Delmarva Peninsula vicinity into southern/central NJ, as
   observations show winds backed to south-southeasterly across this
   region to the east of a deep surface low in central PA. Accordingly,
   a few tornadoes also cannot be ruled out with any storms that can
   remain semi-discrete.

   ..Gleason.. 11/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38307657 40287555 40787488 40557426 40337393 39697410
               39457430 38987481 38687502 38377499 37837528 37627563
               37827665 38307657