Mesoscale Discussion 1825
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the Delmarva Peninsula...NJ...far
   eastern PA...and southern New York

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 515...

   Valid 302137Z - 302230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 515 continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated tornado and damaging wind threat will continue
   across parts of the Delmarva Peninsula and New Jersey vicinity for
   the next couple of hours. Additional watch issuance into southern
   New York (including NYC) appears unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms will continue to move quickly
   east-northeastward across the Eastern Shore of MD, DE, NJ, and into
   southern NY late this afternoon. Slightly greater instability
   resides across southern portions of this area, where modest diurnal
   heating and mid 60s surface dewpoints are supporting MLCAPE around
   500-750 J/kg. Rather strong low to mid-level flow persists across
   this region per VWP estimates from KDOX/KDIX, which should foster
   continued storm organization in the short term. Both isolated
   straight-line damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes
   will remain possible given the strength and modest veering of the
   low-level wind field. This severe threat is expected to gradually
   end as storms eventually move offshore. Into northern NJ and
   southern NY, both surface temperatures and dewpoints are lower
   compared to locations farther south. Even with strong low-level warm
   advection, there may not be enough instability to support much more
   than an isolated strong/gusty wind threat with northward extent into
   these areas. Therefore, additional watch issuance into southern NY
   appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Gleason.. 11/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...

   LAT...LON   37717613 38307615 39207578 39697537 40337527 41057496
               41337465 41447438 41427394 41227377 40377393 39657412
               39407430 38927485 38677506 38337503 37817535 37557560
               37717613