Mesoscale Discussion 1826
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0613 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2020

   Areas affected...Southern New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 010013Z - 010215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...New tornado watch does not appear warranted; however, some
   risk for gusty winds remains.

   DISCUSSION...Surface low continues to lift north this evening which
   has allowed 60F dew points to spread across Long Island into
   southern NY/southern CT. Even so, these dew points suggest the most
   buoyant parcels within the sounding are near 900mb, yielding 800-900
   J/kg MUCAPE. Over the last hour or so, convective line that has
   progressed steadily across eastern PA/NJ has gradually weakened with
   lightning now observed along the northern line segment from
   northeast NJ into southern NY. Observational data does not suggest
   this squall line is producing severe winds. Downstream, winds have
   gusted at times in excess of 50kt well ahead of the main squall line
   over portions of southern New England, but these gusts do not appear
   to be particularly enhanced/generated by elevated convection. Given
   the stable near-surface conditions, and the weakening squall line,
   confidence is not high that thunderstorms will actually generate
   severe wind gusts this evening. While some mixing could occur given
   the very strong flow off the surface, current thinking is a new
   watch is not necessary for these conditions.

   ..Darrow/Grams.. 12/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   41757370 42497199 42457023 41287048 40547323 41757370