Mesoscale Discussion 1829
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 PM CST Wed Dec 02 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far northwestern Oklahoma...far
   southwestern Kansas

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 022157Z - 030200Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow is expected to continue into the
   evening hours, with up to 1 inch/hr rates possible in some of the
   heavier bands.

   DISCUSSION...MRMS regional radar imagery has shown a recent uptick
   in precipitation intensity across portions of northern OK, with up
   to 40 dBZ reflectivity values noted on the 0.5 degree tilt mosaics
   (mainly over Alfalfa/Grant Counties in northern OK). In addition,
   increasing snowfall rates have been noted by KLBL/KGAG METARs. As a
   500 mb low slowly moves eastward, a belt of 925-700 mb
   warm-air/moisture advection continues to pivot around the northern
   side of the low, promoting adequate moisture and deep-layer ascent
   to support additional moderate to heavy wintry precipitation. The
   21Z Mesoanalysis depicts near saturation of an 800+ m deep -12 to
   -17C dendritic growth zone over far northwest Oklahoma, where
   efficient snowfall production is possible. Mesoanalysis trends over
   the past few hours have also shown a westward advection of around
   100 J/kg MUCAPE towards northwest OK. As such, some slantwise
   convection supporting locally higher snowfall rates (up to 1 inch/hr
   in some cases) is also possible, especially given the aforementioned
   low-level warm air advection. 12Z HREF suggests that 1 inch/hr
   snowfall rates would be most likely across far northwestern OK,
   mainly within the 23-04Z period.

   ..Squitieri.. 12/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36350113 37060118 37240078 37259971 37169894 36619877
               36309896 36079965 36090033 36350113